Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 14.048127 17.131467 20.575937 24.686532 29.434955 34.724057 41.036076
2025-04-27 9.827063 13.850725 18.859636 25.451279 33.786036 43.858093 56.821474
2025-05-04 7.588151 11.988020 17.939889 26.356759 37.702287 52.197622 71.811489
2025-05-11 6.017495 10.521118 17.069373 26.906525 40.876199 59.531235 85.774541
2025-05-18 4.707564 9.079999 15.887832 26.699835 42.788871 65.124270 97.615665
2025-05-25 3.598919 7.670207 14.455847 25.828161 43.514928 68.966563 107.138708
2025-06-01 2.866104 6.712923 13.541618 25.554586 44.979331 73.815343 118.205014
2025-06-08 2.181625 5.661046 12.265366 24.481498 45.029677 76.494320 126.188004
2025-06-15 1.877310 5.290560 12.120919 25.253410 48.012216 83.677144 141.078830
2025-06-22 1.460726 4.557588 11.163297 24.457335 48.307915 86.686298 149.791513
2025-06-29 1.282895 4.331136 11.155923 25.364894 51.510411 94.393275 165.992636
2025-07-06 0.940075 3.575673 9.914769 23.776015 50.216027 94.760807 170.734570
2025-07-13 0.786793 3.308010 9.738496 24.362175 53.056349 102.415005 187.986222
2025-07-20 0.660850 3.078560 9.617648 25.070449 56.229073 110.900305 207.157267
2025-07-27 0.564765 2.904229 9.590923 25.962276 59.801018 120.243489 228.139519
2025-08-03 0.470221 2.690768 9.418486 26.505257 62.726908 128.602394 247.835071
2025-08-10 0.367747 2.390092 8.945416 26.301049 64.146517 134.360326 263.388707
2025-08-17 0.269410 2.038502 8.238209 25.439920 64.142727 137.532065 274.638575
2025-08-24 0.206741 1.803477 7.807680 25.169669 65.308121 142.857818 289.783008
2025-08-31 0.144521 1.510318 7.107654 24.109684 64.686119 144.800185 299.049667
2025-09-07 0.122472 1.436114 7.112287 24.872159 68.064481 154.436508 322.306133
2025-09-14 0.086339 1.223912 6.570067 24.085818 67.935109 157.334990 333.575024
2025-09-21 0.074165 1.179318 6.633976 24.982285 71.672457 167.901624 359.110203